First: the predictions.  You can always look down below and compare with any results page you may see to see exactly which catagories I got right, I’m not going to go through them all.  Overall I got 14 out of the 23 or 24 catagories right, not a great record considering how many I saw, but pretty serviceable, and at least it’s above 50%.  The good news is that I got all eight of the big eight categories right.  Since these are the really important catagories anyway, and the ones that don’t require a bunch of technical knowledge, I take a lot of pride in this.  Especially because in order to get all eight of these right, I took a big risk and it paid off.

That risk was picking Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke, whom almost everyone was predicting, and had already one most of the lead up awards.  I did this mostly because I thought it was the better performance.  As much as I generally am not a fan of the way Sean Penn presents himself in front of the media in real life, he totally dissapeared in the character of Harvey Milk, and made him incredibly likable as well.  Meanwhile, Mickey Rourke’s performance, while fantastic as well, was essentially him putting himself out there for all to see.  Both good, but I think Sean Penn’s role was more challenging and better executed.  Luckily the acadamy agreed.  I also think Penn gave a really excellent acceptance speech.   I hate when everyone’s speech is just listing a bunch of names, and his had meaning, was well put, and delivered a message I felt needed to be said.

Obviously I agreed at least to some extent with the rest of the big eight picks.  Slumdog was a great, and uplifting movie.  But this year, more than any before, has made me feel the arbitrariness of choosing a “best” of anything when it comes to films.  So many movies were fantastic in their own way this year.  All of the best picture nominations were greatly successful at what they were trying to do, and their aims were all worthwhile.  But even other than those five, Doubt, Dark Knight, The Wrestler, Wall-E, and Iron Man all are equally fantastic in their own ways.  It’s really comparing apples and oranges, only the fruits are some of the best that you’ve ever tasted and they are a thousand times more complex than fruit.

As for the show itself, I enjoyed it for the most part.  Hugh Jackman did a good job in his musical numbers, but I did miss having a good stand-up comedian on hand.  In turn, the highlight of the night for me was the combination of Steve Martin and Tina Fey, both fine comedians who are among my favorite performers to watch.  Ben Stiller’s jab at Joaquin Phoenix and Apatow’s tribute to comedy were also great.  And I did like the new way of presenting the acting nominations, especially since it went along with my desire for all these fantastic performances to be rewarded.  It’s too bad something similar can’t be done for all the nominees.

That’s about all I have to say, but I’ve learned to try and be a little more on top of things early on if I’m going to try and watch everything.  Looking forward to blockbuster season now, though.

Nominated movies I saw as of 2/21/2009:

• Changeling
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Doubt
• Frost/Nixon
• Hellboy II: The Golden Army
• In Bruges
• Iron Man
• Kung Fu Panda
• Milk
• Presto
• Rachel Getting Married
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire
• Tropic Thunder
• Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• The Visitor
• Wall-E
• Wanted
• The Wrestler

Edit: before the ceremony on Sunday, I was able to catch the following:

• Toyland
• Lavatory – Love Story
• Octapodi
• This Way Up
• Manon on the Asphalt
• On the Line

Because of this, I’ve changed my prediction on the animated short catagory.

Okay, now that that’s out of the way, I’m going to lay out my predictions by catagory. I will UNDERLINE for my predicted winner, the one I think will win. And just because there’s a few where I have personal favorites, I will also ITALICZE those. If my favorites and my predictions line up, they will be marked by BOTH. Here we go…

BEST PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”
Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”
Andrew Stanton, and Jim Reardon; original story by Stanton and Pete Docter“WALL-E”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
David Hare, “The Reader”
Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”
John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“The Baader-Meinhof Complex” (Germany)
“The Class” (France)
“Departures” (Japan)
“Revanche” (Austria)
“Waltz with Bashir” (Israel)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Bolt”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“WALL-E”

BEST ART DIRECTION
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Revolutionary Road”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Changeling” Tom Stern
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Anthony Dod Mantle
“The Reader,” Chris Menges
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Claudio Miranda
“The Dark Knight,” Wally Pfister

BEST FILM EDITING
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
“The Dark Knight,” Lee Smith
“Frost/Nixon,” Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
“Milk,” Elliot Graham
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Chris Dickens

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Australia,” Catherine Martin
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Jacqueline West
“The Duchess,” Michael O’Conner
“Milk”, Danny Glicker
“Revolutionary Road,” Albert Wolsky

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)”
“Encounters at the End of the World”
“The Garden”
“Man on Wire”
“Trouble the Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Slumdog Millionaire,” “Jai Ho”
“Slumdog Millionaire,” “O Saya”
“WALL-E,” “Down To Earth”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Alexandre Desplat
“Defiance,” James Newton Howard
“Milk,” Danny Elfman
“Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman
“WALL-E,” Thomas Newman

BEST MAKEUP
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,”
“The Dark Knight,”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army,”

BEST SOUND EDITING
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

BEST SOUND MIXING
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Auf der Strecke (On the Line)”
“Manon on the Asphalt”
“New Boy”
“The Pig”
“Spielzeugland (Toyland)”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“La Maison en Petits Cubes”
“Lavatory – Lovestory”
“Oktapodi”
“Presto”
“This Way Up”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“The Conscience of Nhem En”
“The Final Inch”
“Smile Pinki”
“The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306″

The only adjustment I might make is if I have time to watch a few shorts tomorrow (I might also make an effort for Revolutionary Road). Time will tell if any of these prove correct.